The charting system of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo was developed by a Japanese newspaper man named Goichi Hosoda. He began developing this system before World War II with the help of numerous students that he hired to run through the optimum formulas and scenarios – analogous to how we would use computer simulated backtesting today to test a trading system. The system itself was finally released to the public in 1968, after more than twenty years of testing, when Mr. Hosoda published his book which included the final version of the system.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo has been used extensively in Asian trading rooms since Hosoda published his book and has been used successfully to trade currencies, commodities, futures, and stocks. Even with such wild popularity in Asia, Ichimoku did not make its appearance in the West until the 1990s and then, due to the utter lack of information in English on how to use it, it was mostly relegated to the category of another “exotic” indicator by the general trading public. Only now, in the early 21st century, are western traders really beginning to understand the power of this charting system.
– IchiWiki

Even though I haven’t stopped using them, I haven’t written about Ichimoku charts in a long, long time. It’s time for me to correct that oversight. I was inspired to start posting the charts again after I noticed that stockcharts.com has a new article about them. The article does the best job I’ve seen in presenting how to use Ichimoku in a concise but complete way. If you’re at all interested, take a few minutes and read the article.

But here are the basics:

Source: stockcharts.com

I’m only going to use the English translation of these terms. The red line is the “standard line.” The blue line in the “turning line.” When the turning line is above the standard line, it’s bullish. When the turning line is below the standard line, it’s bearish.

The green line that lags behind is the “lagging line.” When it’s above the price of 26 days ago, it’s bullish. When it’s below the price, of 26 days ago, it’s bearish.

There are also the “leading lines” to the far right of the chart. When the first leading line (green) is above the second leading line (red) it’s bullish. When the opposite is true, it’s bearish.

Finally, there is the heart of the Ichimoku system — those red and green cloud-looking things. They are called — you guessed it — “clouds.” When the price is above the clouds the trend is up. That’s bullish. When the price is below the clouds the trend is down. That’s bearish.

That’s it. I know the chart looks complicated at first, but it really is that simple.

So let’s look at the Ichimoku charts for some major markets, starting with the stock market:

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“No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer.”
– Bill Gates, 1981

Not to pick on the richest man in the world, but the above Bill Gates quote is a humorous example of why predictions are an exercise in futility — whether they be about technology, the stock market, politics, weather, whatever. Predictions are by definition about the future and the future is unknowable.

So here are my predictions for 2010: The stock market, gold, oil, and emerging markets will go up. The US dollar and bonds will go down.

Why? I went over a lot of this in last week’s report, but it’s important so it bears repeating…

The stock market

Gold

Oil

Emerging markets

US dollar

Treasury bonds

The blue line on the above charts is a simple 200-day moving average. The stock market, gold, oil, and emerging markets are all trending higher. The US dollar and bonds are trending lower. Therefore, the way to bet is they will all continue in the direction they are already going.

Will it turn out that way? Probably not. Some trends will change during the year.  And when they do I’ll change my mind. But going with the existing trend is always the safest bet. And my predictions are more likely to be correct than the admittedly more interesting ones that are based on trying to pick tops and bottoms.

But instead of  wasting time on the unknowable, let’s look at what’s going on right now with the Grail strategies…

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“The most important rule of trading is to play good defense, not great offense. Every day I assume every position I have is wrong. I know where my stop risk points are going to be. I do that so I can define my maximum possible draw down.”
– Paul Tudor Jones

As we move toward the last few trading days of the year the year, let’s look at how some key markets are trending as measured by the longer term 200-day moving average.

The S&P 500 index (SPY) is clearly in an uptrend and has been since late summer. It’s about 13% above its 200-day moving average (blue line), which is pointing higher. And even though it has done nothing but move sideways since early November, it’s also above its volatility stop (orange dots).

There will be much written about the prospects for the stock market going into 2o1o. It’s fun to talk about, but all of it is pure speculation. All we have and all we need is price. And right now the price says the trend is up.

Gold (GLD) is also in an uptrend with its 200-day moving average pointing higher. Like the S&P, the price is also about 13-14% above the average. As long as the trend is up I see no problem in owning gold.

It just so happens that right now gold  is below its volatility stop. So, although the Long Term Timing portfolio still owns GLD,  the ATR Trading portfolio has been out of it since December 7.  I won’t get interested in buying it in trading accounts until it closes above its volatility stop.

The U.S. dollar has been rallying through most of December. It’s above its volatility stop but below its downward pointing 200-day moving average. Therefore, all we can say about it at the moment is that it looks like a bear market rally.

I don’t know if it will or not, but the greenback could move all the way up to its 200 DMA (79.54 as of Friday’s close). If it does, it will probably run into a brick wall and turn back down. And, of course, the direction of the dollar is usually important for the direction of gold.

Crude oil reached a peak in October at over $80 a barrel. Since then it traded down to about $70 before bouncing this past week. However, the trend is up and until the market decides otherwise I’m expecting higher oil prices.

Agricultural commodities (DBA) have been moving sideways for a couple of months. But the price is above the the 200-day moving average and the average is beginning to point up. That tells me that the next significant move may be higher. With the exception of Jim Rogers not many people are talking about agriculture right now, but it may be forming a base for an upside breakout.

So I’ll be reading all the 2010 predictions along with everyone else. However, I’ll be reading them for entertainment value only. The only thing we know for sure is what is before our eyes. The stock market, gold, oil and agriculture are in longer term uptrends. The U.S. dollar is in a counter rally within longer term downtrend.

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On September 8th I wrote ($1000 gold: Is the third time a charm?) that if gold could clear $1,000 an ounce without attracting enough selling to bring it back below that level (as happened twice before) then $1,000 could become the new floor rather than the ceiling. So far, that has been the case.

When I wrote that I was thinking about oil in 2004. At the time I wrote that if oil could clear $40 a barrel and stay above that level,  the $40 area could become the permanent floor.

And you know what happened after that. Oil kept rising, eventually trading at over $140 in 2008. And then the mass liquidation of assets occurred bringing oil down along with just about everything else.  But when it traded down to $40 (late 2008 and early 2009) it found support and currently is back up in the high 70′s.

Well, this morning here’s what I read from Dr. Marc Faber:

“Gold won’t fall below $1,000 an ounce again after rising 27 percent this year to a record as central banks print money to help fund budget deficits, said Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report.

The precious metal rose to all-time highs in New York and London today as the dollar weakened. The Dollar Index, a gauge of value against six other currencies, has declined 7.9 percent this year and today fell to a 15-month low. News last week of bullion purchases by the Indian and Sri Lankan governments raised speculation that other countries would follow suit.

“We will not see less than the $1,000 level again,” [my emphasis] Faber said at a conference today in London. “Central banks are all the same. They are printers. Gold is maybe cheaper today than in 2001, given the interest rates. You have to own physical gold.”

China will keep buying resources including gold, he said.

Faber is making more of a bold prediction than I would make. But I sure wouldn’t be surprised if he’s right.

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