I’ve spent roughly 64 years studying the stock market on a daily, weekly and monthly basis. I’d say that 80% of the time I was perplexed or unsure of my stand. I know in the advisory business you are always expected to know exactly what’s going on and where to place your money. In my experience, the more cock-sure the advisor, the bigger the quack.

One problem is that the stock market isn’t always talking, and when it isn’t, many advisors create scenarios so they can carry on the illusion for their readers that they, at all times, know what is happening.
– Richard Russell

Russell says he was perplexed or unsure of his stand 80% of the time. Even though he didn’t say so, I’d bet that it was the other 20% — when he apparently was more sure — that he was the most wrong. That’s the way it works. If you ever get to thinking you have a handle on what’s going on, watch out. That’s usually when Mr. Market is about to show you who’s boss.

So in a perplexing and unsure way I’ll timidly say that it sure seems like the mining stocks are about to do something pretty exciting, doesn’t it?

The gold ETF (GLD) — owned by the Long Term Timing portfolio — is up a very nice 4.63% over the last 30 days. But the junior miner ETF (GDXJ) — owned by the ATR Trading portfolio –  more than doubled that performance, up 9.78%.

And Silver Wheaton? Goodness gracious…

SLW –  also owned by the Long Term Timing portfolio — is up 20.35% in a month. In fact, SLW is making new all-time highs.

By the way, I haven’t written about it in a long time, but SLW has a great business model. The company doesn’t own or operate any mines. Here’s what happens –70% of of all silver production is a buy-product of precious metal or base metal production (Which is one of the exciting things about silver, but that’s another story in itself). So Silver Wheaton makes deals with mining companies to buy up to 100% of their silver production at a pre-determined price of about $4 an ounce.

The company has no capital expenditures. No production costs. It only has about 20 full-time employees. It’s a cash flow machine is what it is. SLW has been my favorite “mining” stock for a several years. It’s good to see it making its move.

Oh, I shouldn’t have to remind you, but I will anyway. Don’t think that mining stocks are getting expensive. On the contrary…

The gold/xau ratio is still well over 6. When it gets below 4, then we’ll start talking about the mining stocks being too expensive. We’re a long way from that happening.

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