There is an interesting piece on Seeking Alpha this morning about the stock market. It cites a Jeffrey Saut article asking the question, “Is This the Beginning of a New Secular Bull Market?”
Read the whole thing, but here are some facts:
- There have been 34 cyclical bull markets since 1900, not including the one we’re in right now.
- The median gain has been 69.1%, lasting 614 days. An annualized return of 36.8%.
- The current rally has gained 59.4%. So far it has lasted 253 days. An annualized return of 96%.
- The current rally ranks 22 out of 34 it total returns.
- 29th of 34 in number of days.
- And 5th out of 34 in annualized returns.
So, statistically, in terms of number of days this market could go on for quite some time. In terms of gains, it still has room to rise but further gains could be more modest.
But, then again, you know what they say about statistics.