“No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer.”
– Bill Gates, 1981

Not to pick on the richest man in the world, but the above Bill Gates quote is a humorous example of why predictions are an exercise in futility — whether they be about technology, the stock market, politics, weather, whatever. Predictions are by definition about the future and the future is unknowable.

So here are my predictions for 2010: The stock market, gold, oil, and emerging markets will go up. The US dollar and bonds will go down.

Why? I went over a lot of this in last week’s report, but it’s important so it bears repeating…

The stock market

Gold

Oil

Emerging markets

US dollar

Treasury bonds

The blue line on the above charts is a simple 200-day moving average. The stock market, gold, oil, and emerging markets are all trending higher. The US dollar and bonds are trending lower. Therefore, the way to bet is they will all continue in the direction they are already going.

Will it turn out that way? Probably not. Some trends will change during the year.  And when they do I’ll change my mind. But going with the existing trend is always the safest bet. And my predictions are more likely to be correct than the admittedly more interesting ones that are based on trying to pick tops and bottoms.

But instead of  wasting time on the unknowable, let’s look at what’s going on right now with the Grail strategies…

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