Today’s activity…
“Bonds have seen their best days.”
– Bill Gross in a Bloomberg Radio interview, March 25, 2010
Bill Gross is the billionaire who manages Pacific Investment Management Company, the world’s largest bond fund. According to Thomas R. Keene and Susanne Walker, writing for TheBurningPlatform.com, the U.S. has about $10 trillion of bonds to issue over the next few years.
Bill Gross doesn’t want to buy those bonds. Foreigners don’t want to buy them. U.S. investors have been pouring money in bonds — missing the stock market rally — because they think that Treasuries are a safe haven. But how long is that going to last when they realize they can get burned in the bond market just as easily as they previously got burned in the stock market?
How about you, do you want the lend the government money at a less than 4% yield for 10 years or more? I didn’t think so.
The bull market in bonds is about 29 years old:
It began in 1981 with a 10-year Treasury yield — according to Keene and Walker — of 15.8%. It reached a peak in December of 2008 with a record low yield of 2.09%. Yesterday, the 10-year yield was 3.87%.
With trillions of dollars to borrow and with the bond market saying that it’s safer to lend money to Warren Buffett than to the U.S. government I think the almost three decade bull market for bonds is running on fumes and, indeed, may have peaked at the end of 2008. If so, bonds could be in the very early stages of a very long bear market — maybe as long as the bull market lasted.
My philosophy for developing long-term investment themes is simple. Money around the world will tend to move from what is overvalued to what is under valued. That was my premise for getting interested in gold in March of 2003. Gold had been in a bear market since 1980. It ended in 2001 and started going up in earnest in 2003. Gold (along with other commodities) was grossly undervalued. I knew that’s where money would flow.
The bear market in gold lasted about 21 years. I don’t see any reason to believe that the bull market won’t last for a similar length of time. And with gold more than tripling since 2003 it’s so far, so good.
If long-term Treasury bond prices have topped out — and I’m betting that they have — then we could be entering a new era which will be accompanied by a very long trend in rising interest rates and, therefore, falling bond prices.
So if you believe that a bear market for bonds has commenced how do you play it?
The charting system of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo was developed by a Japanese newspaper man named Goichi Hosoda. He began developing this system before World War II with the help of numerous students that he hired to run through the optimum formulas and scenarios – analogous to how we would use computer simulated backtesting today to test a trading system. The system itself was finally released to the public in 1968, after more than twenty years of testing, when Mr. Hosoda published his book which included the final version of the system.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo has been used extensively in Asian trading rooms since Hosoda published his book and has been used successfully to trade currencies, commodities, futures, and stocks. Even with such wild popularity in Asia, Ichimoku did not make its appearance in the West until the 1990s and then, due to the utter lack of information in English on how to use it, it was mostly relegated to the category of another “exotic” indicator by the general trading public. Only now, in the early 21st century, are western traders really beginning to understand the power of this charting system.
– IchiWiki
Even though I haven’t stopped using them, I haven’t written about Ichimoku charts in a long, long time. It’s time for me to correct that oversight. I was inspired to start posting the charts again after I noticed that stockcharts.com has a new article about them. The article does the best job I’ve seen in presenting how to use Ichimoku in a concise but complete way. If you’re at all interested, take a few minutes and read the article.
But here are the basics:
I’m only going to use the English translation of these terms. The red line is the “standard line.” The blue line in the “turning line.” When the turning line is above the standard line, it’s bullish. When the turning line is below the standard line, it’s bearish.
The green line that lags behind is the “lagging line.” When it’s above the price of 26 days ago, it’s bullish. When it’s below the price, of 26 days ago, it’s bearish.
There are also the “leading lines” to the far right of the chart. When the first leading line (green) is above the second leading line (red) it’s bullish. When the opposite is true, it’s bearish.
Finally, there is the heart of the Ichimoku system — those red and green cloud-looking things. They are called — you guessed it — “clouds.” When the price is above the clouds the trend is up. That’s bullish. When the price is below the clouds the trend is down. That’s bearish.
That’s it. I know the chart looks complicated at first, but it really is that simple.
So let’s look at the Ichimoku charts for some major markets, starting with the stock market:
The latest Blees numbers are posted.
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“Based on my own personal experience — both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past — rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.”
– Marty Whitman
The latest Blees numbers are posted.
Today’s activity…
RSI Reversal Strategy
Sold DGP at 27.74

The charting system of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo was developed by a Japanese newspaper man named Goichi Hosoda. He began developing this system before World War II with the help of numerous students that he hired to run through the optimum formulas and scenarios – analogous to how we would use computer simulated backtesting today to test a trading system. The system itself was finally released to the public in 1968, after more than twenty years of testing, when Mr. Hosoda published his book which included the final version of the system.
“Based on my own personal experience — both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past — rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.”
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