Today’s activity…
Dec 312009
Dec 302009
Today’s activity…
Dec 292009
Today’s activity…
Dec 292009
I’ve added the triple leveraged bullish real estate ETF (DRN) to the list of ETFs that we’re following for the RSI Reversal Strategy. It has grown in popularity and I think real estate will be a good addition.
The RSI Reversal charts have been updated.
Dec 282009
Today’s activity…
Dec 282009
“No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer.”
– Bill Gates, 1981
Not to pick on the richest man in the world, but the above Bill Gates quote is a humorous example of why predictions are an exercise in futility — whether they be about technology, the stock market, politics, weather, whatever. Predictions are by definition about the future and the future is unknowable.
So here are my predictions for 2010: The stock market, gold, oil, and emerging markets will go up. The US dollar and bonds will go down.
Why? I went over a lot of this in last week’s report, but it’s important so it bears repeating…
The stock market
Gold
Oil
Emerging markets
US dollar
Treasury bonds
The blue line on the above charts is a simple 200-day moving average. The stock market, gold, oil, and emerging markets are all trending higher. The US dollar and bonds are trending lower. Therefore, the way to bet is they will all continue in the direction they are already going.
Will it turn out that way? Probably not. Some trends will change during the year. And when they do I’ll change my mind. But going with the existing trend is always the safest bet. And my predictions are more likely to be correct than the admittedly more interesting ones that are based on trying to pick tops and bottoms.
But instead of wasting time on the unknowable, let’s look at what’s going on right now with the Grail strategies…
Dec 242009
Today’s activity…
Dec 232009
Today’s activity…
Dec 232009
- A few notes from “Trading from Your Gut” (CXO)
- Dollar is key for markets for 2010 (Todd Harrison)
- Comparing gold rallies for the past 3 years (Barry Ritholtz)
- Why support and resistance works (Jason Goepfert)
- Lies, damn lies, and government statistics (John Mauldin)
- Goldman fueled AIG gambles (WSJ)
- Who is the “mystery writer” that Barron’s says is a forecaster worth listening to? (Barry Ritholtz)
- Popular culture and the stock market (Trader’s Narrative)
- Talent is overrated. “Deliberate practice” is what works (hr capitalist)
- Hourly pay brings more happiness than a salary? (Future Pundit)
- What may be next for the gold sell off (Radomski)
- Smart people doing stupid stuff to make money, like selling bowling balls on the Internet (David Wurtz)
- Stock returns around Christmas (CXO)
- It’s your life. No more excuses (Karen Salmansohn)
- The future of gold, the dollar, and more (Jennifer Shonberger)
- Subjective probability and trading success (Ray Barros)
- Yeah, there are divergences. But Dow keeps on trucking (StockCharts)
- Understanding how markets move (Brett Steenbarger)
- Why a stop-loss is your best friend (Damien Hoffman)
- Gold is the new Tupperware and you’re invited to the party (WSJ)
- Profiting from John Altucher’s insanity (Daleela Farina)
- Why newbie traders fail (Ray Barros)
- The key is to have a passion for trading, but not a need to trade (Brett Steenbarger)
- Top 10 money movies of the decade (Man vs. Debt)
- 200-day moving averages accelerating (VIX and more)
- What happens to precious metals if stocks plunge? (Radomski)
- John Mauldin: The Age of Deleveraging (John Mauldin)
- Flying during the holidays? Codes to grab free in-flight wi-fi (lifehacker)
- Jeff Saut wonders if we’re at another turning point (Minyanville)
- This has been the worst decade for stocks ever (WSJ)
- Honor roll newsletters are bullish for 2010 (Mark Hulbert)
- Beware of gold advertising (Dash of Insight)
- 8 things for markets to watch out for in 2010 (Matthew Lynn)
- New site for stock research. Looks good (YCharts)
- Simple momentum strategies work (CXO)
- Interview with Whole Foods CEO on health care (Reason)
- Possible changing global macro themes (Brett Steenbarger)
- Gold outshines all other assets for past decade (Trader’s Narrative)
- Byron Wien: Ten surprises for 2010 (Edward Harrison)
- James Altucher’s 10 predictions for 2010. The most controversial is “The world will not end” (James Altucher)
- The 10 business “worsts” of the decade (Gary Weiss)
- Marc Faber on US vs China. He likes agriculture, natural gas and Japan (Andy Mukherjee)
- Hard realities for traders (Brett Steenbarger)
Dec 222009
Gold is coming down to its breakout area from early November — around 1070. It should now serve as support:
This morning gold is trading around 1085. Getting close.